Israel struck Lebanon’s Al-Qasimiyeh Bridge, and the probability of an offensive suspension by April 30 dropped to 97.4% YES, down from 83% a day ago.
Market reaction
The April 17 market fell harder, now at 97% YES after sitting at 68% just 24 hours earlier. The largest move was a 28-point spike from 28% to 56% as traders reacted to the airstrike news. The May 31 and June 30 markets are less volatile, suggesting traders still expect a suspension eventually, just not soon.
Volume is at $123,586 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours. It takes $3,739 to move the price by 5 points, indicating real market depth. The largest recent price move was a 9-point spike at 1:17 PM.
Why it matters
The bridge strike cuts against de-escalation. Israel appears focused on establishing a security zone in southern Lebanon, which makes a full suspension less likely in the near term. Buying YES shares at 97¢ pays $1 if the suspension is announced by April 17, a 1.92x return. But that bet requires clear de-escalation signals that don’t exist right now.
What to watch
Official statements from Netanyahu or IDF spokesperson updates on military operations in southern Lebanon. Any sign of reduced activity, such as a halt in infrastructure strikes, could shift these markets quickly.
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Israel Military Action Against Beirut On 522| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 1 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 5 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 9 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 97.5% | +9¢ | $54K | Trade → |
| May 31 | 98.3% | +7.3¢ | $5K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 97.4% | +3.9¢ | $5K | Trade → |
| April 17 | 96% | +44¢ | $593K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | Trade → |