Israel confirmed a self-defense carve-out under the Lebanon ceasefire. The Ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30 market is now at 97% YES, up from 67% a week ago. The April 30 market spiked 13 points at 1:16 PM, moving from 59% to 72% in direct reaction to the news.
The suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30 market is at 99.9% YES, up from 87% in the last 24 hours. Traders are pricing in de-escalation, with the self-defense clause giving Israel a mechanism to respond to provocations without formally breaking the ceasefire.
The self-defense provision complicates full peace. The market is priced for a ceasefire holding but leaves room for volatility if Hezbollah tests the self-defense limits. Buying YES at 94¢ pays $1 if the ceasefire holds, a 1.06x return. The main risk is whether skirmishes under the self-defense clause get classified as ceasefire breaches.
Watch for Israeli Defense Forces statements and Hezbollah’s response to the self-defense carve-out. Any skirmishes or formal ceasefire breach declarations could move odds quickly.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 14 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 21 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |