A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon has been declared under U.S. mediation. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 market is at 94% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
The announcement moved the April 30 ceasefire market sharply. Traders pushed it up 13 points to 72% at 1:16 PM before it settled higher still. The longer-term June 30 market is nearly maxed out at 97% YES, showing strong confidence in sustained de-escalation.
The suspension of the Lebanon offensive by April 30 rose from 87% to 96% YES. The largest price move there was a 9-point jump at 1:17 PM, as traders priced in a likely cessation of Israeli operations in Lebanon.
The market trades $1,205,891 in USDC daily, with an order book requiring $50,093 to move 5 points, which is institutional-grade thickness. The largest single move was the 13-point spike, likely driven by large orders reacting to the ceasefire announcement.
The ceasefire has pushed odds high, but fragility is real. Israeli strikes continued just hours before the ceasefire was declared, raising questions about durability. At 94¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire holds by April 30, a 1.06x return. Traders buying at this level need sustained negotiations to hold over the next 14 days.
Watch for statements from Netanyahu or the IDF that could affirm or break the ceasefire. Any shift in Hezbollah’s posture or U.S. diplomatic moves will directly affect these markets.
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Israel X Hezbollah Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 23.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 40.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 69.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
