The IRGC’s Navy commander said any vessel ignoring warnings in the Strait of Hormuz will be targeted. The market on the UK sending warships through the strait by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday.
The commander’s threat directly raises the cost of any transit, and traders have responded accordingly. The market dropped from 12% to 8.5% in the past 24 hours, a 3.5-point move that reflects reduced confidence in a UK deployment.
Daily volume is around $16,551 face value, with actual USDC volume of $1,412. The order book is thin: just $304 would move the price by 5 percentage points. The largest recent price move was a 2-point spike at 4:25 PM, showing how reactive this market is to new information.
The IRGC’s posture could deter other countries from sending warships too, if the escalation risk outweighs the strategic rationale. With 12 days left until resolution, buying YES at 8.5¢ pays 11.76x, but the odds reflect an expectation that the UK stays out.
Watch for official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence or any shift in IRGC posture. Either could move this market sharply in either direction given the thin order book.
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