The Polymarket contract for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz between April 13 and April 19 sits at 0.4% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago, despite a declared ceasefire and reported drops in strait traffic.
Market reaction
The contract has barely moved, with a maximum 2-point spike at 4:25 AM representing the only notable activity. Daily USDC volume is just $14, and $12 is enough to shift prices by 5 points, making the market vulnerable to even small trades. Explore the market.
Why it matters
Reports of single-digit traffic contradict Iran’s claims of open strait access. The existing U.S. Navy blockade and Iran’s control over the strait point to sustained tension in the region. Traders are pricing this contract as if a sub-10 transit outcome is nearly impossible, which either reflects confidence that traffic will recover or simply that no one is paying attention to a thinly traded market.
What to watch
A YES share at 0.4¢ pays $1 if it resolves YES, but with only one day left in the trading period, resolution likely depends on unexpected diplomatic or military developments. Statements from CENTCOM or the IRGC regarding the strait’s status could provide the clearest signal. Any change in naval posture would matter most at this point.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
