Hegseth reports Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is wounded but alive and governing remotely. The market for “no Head of State in Iran by end of 2026” is seeing increased interest, with odds potentially moving up by 15%.
Mojtaba Khamenei assumed the role after his father’s death in a US-Israel airstrike and has not made a public appearance since the attack. His absence is fueling speculation about a leadership vacuum. The market for Iranian regime fall by May 31 sits at 4.5% YES, down from 6% a week ago. The Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 market is at 5.5% YES.
Odds for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by December 31 have dropped to 12.5% YES from 16% a week ago. Traders are pricing in caution about his near-term return, even with weakened Iranian leadership.
The regime fall market has a face value of $6,965 per day, translating to $313 in actual USDC. It takes $16,811 to move the odds five points, making it a relatively thick market. Pahlavi’s entry market is thinner: $8,486 moves the odds the same amount.
At 12.5¢, a YES share on Pahlavi’s December return pays $1 if he enters Iran, an 8x return. That bet requires expecting Mojtaba Khamenei’s continued absence and rising political unrest inside Iran.
Watch for statements from the Assembly of Experts or any public appearance by Mojtaba Khamenei, either of which would move these markets. The Islamabad peace negotiations are also worth tracking, as their outcome could directly affect regime stability pricing.
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Will The Iranian Regime Fall May 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 12.5% | — | — | Trade → |
