Iran’s President Pezeshkian affirmed Iran’s nuclear rights under the NPT, challenging US demands. Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands in April is at 38.5% YES, down from 62% yesterday.
Pezeshkian’s statement has shifted market sentiment, reinforcing Iran’s hardline stance. The Trump’s agreement to Iranian demands by April market dropped to 38.5% YES from 62% over the past 24 hours. With only 12 days until the ceasefire deadline, traders are pricing in growing skepticism about a breakthrough.
The Iranian uranium stockpile surrender by April 30 market is at 31.2% YES, down from 65% yesterday. That’s a massive reassessment of the likelihood Iran capitulates to US terms within the month. The term structure tells a different story further out: the June 30 market is priced at 58.5% YES, suggesting traders see more room for progress after April.
Volume across these markets hit $24,072 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours. The order book is thin — only $816 is needed to move the price by 5 points, making these markets susceptible to swings from single large trades. That thinness amplifies volatility as the ceasefire deadline approaches.
Pezeshkian’s defiance signals a difficult path for negotiators. At 31¢, a YES bet on Iran surrendering its uranium stockpile by April 30 would pay $1, a 3.23x return. That wager requires a drastic shift in talks within 12 days, which looks unlikely without new diplomatic moves.
Watch for upcoming talks or statements from Trump, Pezeshkian, or JD Vance. Any change in rhetoric or policy from either side could move these markets fast.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 38.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 31.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 62.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 50% | — | — | Trade → |
