Iranian missiles reportedly targeted central Israel shortly after a ceasefire announcement. The ceasefire by April 7 market is at 57% YES, dropping from a 76% peak earlier today.
The missile launch news hit as markets were already volatile. The April 15 market sits at 70.5%, up from 14% just 24 hours ago. Traders are recalibrating after the ceasefire announcement, but the missile launch raises doubts. The April 30 market is at 72.5%, a moderate uptick from earlier in the week, but the timing of the attack could temper optimism.
The US forces enter Iran by April 30 market is currently at 98.8% YES. This reflects heightened expectations of US military action following the breach. The presence of US forces on the ground seems almost certain, driven by reports like this. This market moved from 57% a week ago, showing a steep climb in anticipation of increased military involvement.
The spotlight is on the credibility of the ceasefire. Previous market moves were driven by diplomatic language, but this escalation challenges the narrative. Buying YES at 57¢ offers a 1.75x return if the ceasefire holds, but the missile launch suggests otherwise. For traders, a durable ceasefire seems less likely without formal reassurances or verified de-escalations.
Watch for official statements from CENTCOM or Iran’s IRGC. Any indication of further military action or a breakdown in communication could drive these markets further. Pay attention to Secretary of State Rubio and CENTCOM’s next moves, as they will significantly influence market sentiment.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.3% | — | — | Trade → |
