Iran’s regime is experiencing instability as its military capabilities weaken and social unrest increases. The odds of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 are currently at 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago.
The June 30 sub-market has seen a decline, reflecting trader skepticism about a near-term collapse despite intensified pressures. The current 8.5% YES odds show a cautious outlook, with traders possibly considering the regime’s historical resilience against current adversities. Meanwhile, the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 is priced at 99.6% YES, indicating strong confidence in a ceasefire despite ongoing instability.
The Iranian regime fall market shows significant trading activity, with $92,784 in actual USDC daily volume. This is much lower than the face value of $762,605, highlighting the gap between apparent and real liquidity. It takes $7,670 to move the odds by 5 points, suggesting moderate market depth. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was just a 1-point spike, showing traders’ caution.
Iran’s regime faces a difficult situation with weakened military capabilities and economic turmoil. Social unrest, high inflation, and unemployment challenge the regime’s hold on power. However, the resilience shown through past crises may temper the market’s bearish outlook. At 8.5¢, a YES share pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30 — an 11.8x return. This could attract those who believe internal fractures or international pressures might lead to a regime change.
Keep an eye on key figures like Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC Supreme Council. Watch for any unexpected meetings of the Assembly of Experts or significant public shifts within Iran’s leadership structure. These could be important signals for traders.
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information, see our Editorial Policy. Will The Iranian Regime Fall June 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 8.5% | 0.0¢ | $762K | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 15 | 99.6% | 0.0¢ | $7.4M | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.6% | +0.2¢ | $3.4M | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.6% | 0.0¢ | $950K | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.7% | +0.1¢ | $1.3M | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.7% | +0.1¢ | $615K | Trade → |
