Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Oman amid ongoing nuclear negotiations, but the Polymarket contract for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at just 2.7% YES.
Market reaction
Oman has acted as a mediator in US-Iran negotiations, and Araghchi’s visit there drew attention. Still, the April 30 contract dropped from 6% to 2.7% over the past 24 hours. The June 30 contract trades at 25.5% YES, which suggests traders expect any deal to come after April. The December 31 contract, at 40% YES, is the most optimistic of the three.
Why it matters
The April 30 market’s order book is thin: $9,564 would move the price 5 percentage points. Daily volume is $10,723 in USDC. With only six days left before the April resolution, the contract prices in heavy skepticism that a deal can materialize this fast. A YES position at 2.7¢ would pay 37x if the contract resolves positively, but that payout reflects how unlikely traders consider a last-minute agreement.
What to watch
Official statements from Omani or Iranian officials after Araghchi’s meetings, and any US signals on sanction relief or uranium stockpile terms. Movement in the June 30 contract would indicate whether traders see the visit as producing real momentum or just diplomatic routine.
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Iran Agrees To Surrender Enriched Uranium Stockpile| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 2.7% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 40% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 25% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 24 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 25 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 26 | 1.2% | — | — | Trade → |
