Iran’s call to lift the Hormuz blockade has caught Trump’s attention. The market for Trump announcing the blockade’s end by May 31, 2026 sits at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.
The drop followed Trump’s call with Pakistan’s military chief. The April 19 sub-market fell harder, now at 8%, down from 28% a day ago. Traders are pricing May as the more likely timeline for any announcement.
Volume hit $29,602 in USDC over the past 24 hours. The term structure shows a 70-point gap between the April 19 and May 31 sub-markets, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in that window. The largest single price move was a 5-point drop at 12:19 PM, tracking closely with news flow.
At 78¢, a YES share pays 1.28x if the blockade is lifted by May 31. That bet requires a US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough within 43 days.
Watch for statements from Trump’s team or official White House confirmation. The next signal could come from the Pentagon or NATO regarding military presence in Hormuz.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 78.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 8% | — | — | Trade → |
