Iran has shut the Strait of Hormuz and fired on commercial vessels. The market for Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 31 sits at 0.4% YES.
The closure sharply reduces the likelihood of normal shipping levels resuming soon. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the Strait by April 19 prices YES at 0.4%, with active hostilities making near-term normalization almost impossible to price in.
Volume in the Strait of Hormuz traffic market is thin: $14 in USDC traded in the last 24 hours. It takes just $12 to move the odds by 5 percentage points, which means a single large order can distort the price. A previous 2-point spike at 4:25 AM likely came from one bet, not a broad shift in sentiment.
The closure of the strait, combined with live fire on commercial shipping, is a real barrier to normalizing traffic by end of May. At 0.4¢, a YES share on fewer than 10 ships transiting pays $1. That bet only pays off if there’s a rapid diplomatic resolution, which current conditions don’t support.
Watch for statements from Iranian or U.S. officials on easing tensions or opening negotiations. Khamenei’s next public address or a Pentagon briefing could shift expectations quickly.
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How Many Ships Transit The Strait Of Hormuz This Week Apr 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 14.5% | — | — | Trade → |
