## Market Snapshot
The market concerning the announcement of the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026, is currently priced at 23.5% for a YES outcome. This is a decrease from 24% just 24 hours ago. Meanwhile, the market on whether 20 ships will transit the Strait on any day by May 31 is priced at 60% for YES.
## Key Takeaways
– Iran’s successful transit of ships through the Strait of Hormuz suggests a de facto easing of restrictions, which appears to be supportive of YES outcomes in related transit markets. – Markets suggest a moderate decrease in the likelihood of a US blockade lift announcement, consistent with ongoing political tensions and lack of concrete action from the US. – The diplomatic engagement with BRICS by Iran appears to support the notion of increased international pressure on the US, potentially affecting future geopolitical dynamics.
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