Former State Dept. analyst Aaron David Miller has flagged Iran’s strict conditions for the Strait of Hormuz, and the market for Trump ending the ceasefire by April 21 has jumped to 19% YES, up from 6% yesterday.
The Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026 market saw a 5-point spike at 11:03 AM, directly following Miller’s comments on Iran’s Hormuz demands.
The US-Iran ceasefire announcement market has moved to 17.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday, as traders price in a possible Trump announcement on a ceasefire breach. The Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market sits at 78% YES, with traders skeptical the blockade gets resolved by May 31.
The ceasefire end market has $7,248 in USDC traded, but order book depth is only $880. That thin liquidity means even small trades can move the odds sharply. The largest swing in the last 24 hours was a 5-point increase.
Iran’s specific demands on the Strait of Hormuz create conditions where miscalculation is plausible, and the odds movement from 6% to 15.5% in a single day looks like a genuine repricing rather than noise. At 19¢, a YES share pays $1 if Trump ends the ceasefire by April 21, a 6.25x return. The bet depends on Trump taking a hardline stance within the next three days.
Watch for Trump’s statements or social media posts, shifts in Iranian naval activity, and White House briefings. The April 21 deadline is three days out.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21, 2026 | 19% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 18% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 76% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
