Iran has reversed its decision to open the Strait of Hormuz, citing “US piracy under guise of blockade.” The market on Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by April 30 sits at 59% YES, down from 60% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
Iran’s move has hit several related markets. The UK warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 contract remains low at 7.5% YES. The number reflects some increased probability of allied warship deployments given the tension, but the risk of IRGC aggression against allied vessels keeps it suppressed.
The Trump blockade-lifted-by-April-19 market is at 11% YES, a significant drop from earlier levels. Traders are skeptical Trump will lift the blockade while Iran escalates militarily.
Why it matters
The Strait of Hormuz market trades over $32,000 in USDC daily. The largest single move was a 4-point drop at 6:46 PM, likely a direct reaction to Iran’s announcement. With only $354 required to move this market 5 points, it is vulnerable to sharp swings on thin volume.
Iran’s closure of the Strait is a serious escalation in the 2026 crisis, a tactical move in a broader standoff rather than rhetoric alone. At 59¢, a YES payout on normal traffic by April 30 is a coin flip, and without a diplomatic shift, betting on peaceful resolution carries real risk.
What to watch
Statements from the US 5th Fleet or CENTCOM, and reactions from allies like the UK or France. Any military engagement or diplomatic breakthrough could move these markets fast.
API access
Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.
Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 59% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 77.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
