The US Treasury has imposed sanctions on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, adding economic pressure on Iran. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sit at 47.5% YES, up from 28% a week ago.
Market reaction
The Treasury’s move falls under the “Economic Fury” campaign, an extension of military operations against Iranian interests that began with Israel’s involvement on February 28. This market has seen consistent interest, with the largest recent move being a 2-point drop at 12:19 PM. Traders aren’t convinced Trump’s policy will shift despite the uptick in economic and military measures.
Why it matters
The market has climbed from 28% to 36% over the past week, but the Treasury’s sanctions signal continued adherence to maximum pressure policy, which cuts against the likelihood of Trump yielding to Iranian demands. Order depth is thin: just $285 to move the price 5 points, meaning any significant new information could trigger sharp swings.
Total daily volume is $22,352 in face value and $7,900 in actual USDC. That’s moderate engagement where individual large trades can still move the odds noticeably. The new sanctions make immediate progress on relief less likely by hardening the US negotiating position.
What to watch
With just weeks left until the end of April, odds would need concrete triggers to shift meaningfully: direct talks between US and Iranian officials, or a public softening of stance by Trump. At 36¢ per YES share, the market offers a 2.78x return if Trump agrees to relief.
Watch for statements from the White House or the Treasury indicating a change in strategy. Vice President JD Vance could also play a role in shaping or communicating policy adjustments. Any such developments would likely produce immediate market reactions.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 47.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 0.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 4.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 13.5% | — | — | Trade → |
