Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi announced the Strait of Hormuz was “completely open” for commercial vessels yesterday, and President Trump responded by thanking Iran and declaring cooperation on mine removal in the Strait. The odds of Trump announcing a US-Iran ceasefire breach by April 21 are now at 14.0%, down from 33% a week ago.
Market reaction
The drop from 33% to 9% tracks a rapid de-escalation. Trump’s comments about Iran’s commitment to keep the Strait open and suspend its nuclear program have compressed the probability of a ceasefire breach. The market for Trump announcing a ceasefire breach by April 21 has daily volume at $2,128 in actual USDC.
The market for Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade of the Strait by May 31 is at 76.5%, with actual USDC volume of $5,868/day, indicating strong trader conviction that the blockade ends before summer.
Why it matters
The Strait’s reopening and Trump’s cooperative tone point toward a blockade lift, but Iran has not confirmed nuclear concessions. That gap leaves room for volatility. A YES share on the ceasefire breach market at 14.0¢ pays 11.1x if it resolves YES, a high-risk, high-reward position priced on the assumption that diplomacy holds.
What to watch
Official confirmation from Iran on nuclear program suspension and any follow-up statements from the Trump administration. A firm commitment from either side on nuclear terms could move both markets sharply.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 14% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | 76.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17, 2026 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19, 2026 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
