Iran has dismissed the idea of a temporary ceasefire, pushing instead for a comprehensive end to regional conflicts. The ceasefire-by-April-21 market sits at 5.5% YES, down from 30% a week ago.
Iran’s position complicates negotiations, and markets reflect that skepticism. The April 21 sub-market holds at 5.5%, while April 22 shows a slight uptick to 25.5% YES. Odds for a permanent peace deal by April 30 have climbed to 41.5% YES.
The market trades $5,810 in USDC daily, with $1,700 moving prices 5 points, a thin book. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 5:25 AM.
Iran’s rejection of a temporary ceasefire is the main obstacle. The April 21 odds dropped sharply over the past week. At 5.5¢ per YES share, a resolution would yield a 12.5x return, which tells you how unlikely traders consider it. For those odds to shift, Iran would need to show flexibility, or an intermediary like Oman would have to broker new terms.
Watch for statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or a change in rhetoric from US or Iranian officials. An announcement of new talks or a softening stance from Tehran could move these markets quickly.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 25.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 65.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 42.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 63.5% | — | — | Trade → |
