Iranian Deputy FM Saeed Khatibzadeh says Tehran won’t engage in new talks with the US due to Washington’s “maximalist” demands. Odds for a US-Iran meeting by June 30 sit at 6.9% YES.
The statement has moved related prediction markets sharply. Odds on Iran agreeing to end uranium enrichment by April 30 dropped from 50% to 27.8% YES in 24 hours. The US-Iran peace deal by April 22 fell from 40% to 19.5% YES over the same period. Traders are pricing in the collapse of near-term diplomatic progress.
The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market has a total face value of $84,310, but only $1,599 in actual USDC changed hands in the past 24 hours. The order book is thin: $462 would move prices 5 points, leaving the market exposed to large single trades. The uranium enrichment agreement market is more liquid, with $34,430 in actual USDC traded, showing stronger trader interest.
Iran’s refusal to talk raises escalation risk as the ceasefire window closes. Buying YES at 28¢ offers a 3.6x return if Iran agrees to halt enrichment by April 30. But that would require a dramatic reversal in diplomatic posture within 12 days.
Watch for statements from US Vice President J.D. Vance or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. A new mediator entering the process or a shift in US sanctions policy could swing these markets quickly.
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Where Will The Next Us Iran Diplomatic Meeting Happen 455| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 6.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 27.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 37.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 59.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 68% | — | — | Trade → |
