Iran has proposed reopening the Strait of Hormuz to the U.S. while omitting nuclear discussions from the offer. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 1.0% YES, down from 3% a day ago, as traders price in skepticism that the proposal leads to any near-term resolution.
Market reaction
The ceasefire market dropped from 3% to 1% YES over 24 hours. Total USDC traded is $21,291, with $2,234 needed to move the price 5 points, which points to moderate liquidity. The US invasion of Iran market should see lower probabilities if the proposal is read as a diplomatic opening.
Why it matters
Iran’s offer excludes nuclear terms, which makes it easier to accept but harder to treat as a comprehensive deal. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil transit, so any change in its status directly affects supply disruption pricing. Traders appear to be waiting for a concrete U.S. response before adjusting positions. The gap between Iran floating a proposal and any actual agreement remains wide, and the 1% YES price reflects that gap.
What to watch
At 1% YES, a ceasefire share pays $1 if Trump announces an end to military operations by April 30. Betting YES here requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough happens within a day. The key signals: any official U.S. response to the proposal, or intermediary moves from Oman or Qatar. Either could move this market quickly given the thin liquidity.
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