The Fed left interest rates unchanged at Jerome Powell’s final meeting as chairman. The likelihood of a rate cut after the April meeting sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged over the past week.
Market reaction
The market for a 25 bps cut remains at 0.1% YES, with $10,344 in daily USDC volume. The 50+ bps cut market also sits at 0.1% YES, with no change in trader sentiment over the same period.
Why it matters
Traders had already priced in the Fed holding steady. The Middle East conflict’s effect on energy prices continues to pressure inflation expectations and economic outlooks. The unchanged decision confirms the Fed is prioritizing inflation monitoring and labor market data over reactive rate changes.
What to watch
Total volume across both markets is $11,716 in USDC, and it takes only $1,966 to move the 25 bps market by five points. No large orders have shifted the odds. At 0.1¢ YES, a 25 bps rate cut would pay $1 if it happens, but current pricing treats this as a long shot. Upcoming employment data, inflation figures, and geopolitical developments could change that. Powell’s successor and their policy direction will also shape where these markets move next.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| 50+ | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
