Iran’s Foreign Ministry endorsed the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, framing it as part of a larger agreement with the US to pause the regional conflict. The “Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026” market hit 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago.
Market reaction
The ceasefire announcement moved the “US x Iran permanent peace deal” markets. The April 30 market is now at 41.5% YES, up from 17% seven days ago. The biggest jump is in the “Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026” market, which surged to 89.4% YES. The term structure shows the largest leap in confidence between April 22 and April 30, meaning traders are focused on the next couple of weeks.
Why it matters
Iran’s public acknowledgment of the ceasefire as part of a US-brokered arrangement is the first time Tehran has explicitly tied the Lebanon ceasefire to its own diplomatic track with Washington. USDC volume in the Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire market hit $1,205,891 over the past 24 hours. The largest price move was a 13-point spike in the “April 30” sub-market. Market depth shows it takes $50,093 to move the price by 5 points, indicating strong liquidity.
What to watch
The source is Tier 3 (social media and aggregator-based), so some skepticism is warranted. A YES share at 94¢ pays $1 if Israel and Hezbollah maintain the ceasefire by April 30, a slim 1.06x return. The key variables from here are Netanyahu’s statements and IDF operations. Confirmation or denial of the ceasefire’s durability from those sources will determine whether the market holds at these levels. Watch also for US or Iranian announcements that could signal broader de-escalation or a shift in strategy.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire Extended| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 10.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 41.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 55.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 68% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 96.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 89.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 96.6% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 93.7% | — | — | Trade → |
