## Market Snapshot
WTI Crude Oil prices for May 2026 show heightened interest, with YES pricing at 57.5% for hitting $110, and 25.5% for $120. Recent data indicates a trend toward increased probabilities.
## Key Takeaways
– The reported 12.8 million bpd supply loss appears to be consistent with scenarios supporting YES outcomes in WTI pricing. – Market pricing suggests participants view the supply disruption as a key indicator for potential price increases. – The ongoing geopolitical tensions may indicate further volatility in crude oil markets.
## Article Body
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reported a total global supply loss of 12.8 million barrels per day (bpd) due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since February 2026. The closure is a result of the ongoing conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. Since the imposition of the blockade on March 1, 2026, the transit of oil through the strait has decreased by approximately 80%. This significant disruption is equivalent to the pre-war output of Libya, despite partial mitigation efforts through global strategic oil reserves. The conflict and the closure of this critical chokepoint have led to considerable concern over oil supply and prices.
## Market Interpretation
The current market interpretation is supportive of YES outcomes for WTI crude oil prices reaching higher thresholds in May 2026. The IEA’s report on supply loss is a high-impact factor, suggesting increased probabilities for prices hitting targets such as $110 and $120. Market behavior reflects escalating geopolitical tensions as a substantial contributor to these pricing dynamics.
## What to Watch
Watch for developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations and military activities, as these could significantly influence the Strait of Hormuz’s status. Additionally, updates from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on oil forecasts and any strategic reserve releases will be critical. The potential for further escalation or de-escalation in the region remains a key uncertainty driver.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2026 | 2.6% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 11.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 25.5% | — | — | View market → |
| May 2026 | 57.5% | — | — | View market → |
