Iran condemned Israeli actions in Somalia, and the Polymarket contract for a permanent Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30, 2026, now sits at 6.8% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
Market reaction
The April 30 contract ticked up slightly, but the move was larger on later dates. The June 30 market rose from 12% to 24.5% YES, suggesting traders price any diplomatic breakthrough as further out. The April 22 contract remains at 3.4% YES with only two days until expiration.
Why it matters
Volume at $2,604 in USDC across these markets in the past 24 hours. Order book depth is thin: $422 would move the April 30 market by 5 points. A single large order could swing prices significantly. Iran’s condemnation fits a pattern of sustained hostility rather than a one-off dispute, which makes the sub-5% odds on a near-term deal look appropriately skeptical.
What to watch
At 5¢, a YES share on the April 30 market pays $1 if a deal is signed, a 20x return. That price implies a near-term diplomatic surprise, which would require concrete de-escalation or direct engagement that doesn’t currently exist. Mediation efforts from Qatar, or shifts in rhetoric from US President Donald Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, would be the most likely catalysts.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 6.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 22 | 2.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 24.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 22.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 35% | — | — | Trade → |
