Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has collapsed tanker traffic, with fewer than 10 ships expected to transit the strait between April 13-19. The market for this period sits at 0.1% YES.
Market reaction
Hormuz traffic has dropped over 90% since March 2 under Mojtaba Khamenei’s leadership. The near-zero odds reflect no expectation of a turnaround before April 19, even with broader maritime instability involving Russia and the Houthis in Bab al-Mandab. The book is thin: a mere $11 moves the price 5 points, so this reads more as illiquidity than strong consensus.
Why it matters
A separate Strait of Hormuz Traffic market asks whether traffic will normalize by the end of May. Current geopolitical tensions and UN threats of sanctions are reflected in bearish sentiment across both contracts.
What to watch
Buying YES at 0.1¢ pays $1 if fewer than 10 ships transit, a 1,000x return. Those odds imply near certainty that the blockade continues, which fits the current pattern of escalated tensions and asymmetric tactics. Any shift in Iranian policy or UN Security Council action would move these markets. MarineTraffic data and CENTCOM announcements of naval movements are the most likely sources of a signal before expiry.
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