Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has pushed odds of WTI Crude Oil surging above $160 in April 2026 to 1.4% YES on Polymarket, as traders reassess the likelihood of a major price spike.
Market reaction
The odds moved from 1% to 1.4%, a small shift in absolute terms. The largest single move was a 25-point spike at 8:02 PM, driven by $704 in USDC traded. Explore the market.
Why it matters
About 20% of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s parliament speaker has threatened a permanent closure, which would represent a far more severe disruption. Still, the market remains skeptical about sustained price hikes without further escalation, such as direct attacks on GCC tankers or Saudi infrastructure.
What to watch
Volume sits at $704 in USDC trading, with $1,655 in depth required to move odds by 5 points. This thin liquidity means a single large trade could easily shift prices, but overall trader sentiment is cautious. A YES share at 1.4¢ offers a 71x return if prices break above $160 by end of April. That bet requires believing in further geopolitical disruption beyond what has already occurred.
Key triggers: any US or Iranian announcements on military actions or ceasefire talks. Trump’s negotiation posture and Iran’s military responses will be the main signals in the coming days.
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