Iran dismisses Trump’s temporary ceasefire as a retreat, while proposing a plan through Pakistan. US forces entering Iran by April 30 is at 98.8% YES.
Odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 sit at 57.0% YES, with the April 15 market at 70.5% YES. Iran’s rejection and Trump’s military pressure rhetoric have lowered ceasefire expectations. The April 30 ceasefire market rose to 72.5% YES, indicating some hope for resolution later in the month.
The surge in US troop deployment odds reflects increased military pressure, with the April 30 entry market at 98.8% YES, up from 57% a week ago. The December 31 market shows similar confidence at 99.3% YES. These odds suggest traders expect imminent ground operations, driven by new troop deployments and Trump’s aggressive stance.
Daily trading volume for the US-Iran ceasefire markets is $3.7M in USDC, with a significant 42-point spike at 10:33 PM. The forces entry market sees $56.5M in daily USDC, indicating strong trading activity and belief in troop deployment.
This development signals a potential turning point in the conflict, but without concrete diplomatic progress, uncertainty remains high. For those betting on diplomacy, a YES share on the April 15 ceasefire at 71¢ returns $1 if talks occur in the next eight days — a 1.41x return.
Watch Trump’s rhetoric and any moves from Pakistan, Oman, or Qatar. Trump’s next statement or a Pentagon update could significantly sway these markets.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 99.3% | — | — | Trade → |
