Iran Air has resumed Hajj flights from Tehran, Mashhad, and Zahedan during a ceasefire and partial normalization of Saudi-Iranian ties, while the Iran military action by April 30 market sits at 100% YES. Iran plans to send 30,000 pilgrims to Hajj 2026.
Market reaction
Trading volume for the military action market is zero, with no new positions taken or closed. The unchanged 100% YES odds reflect either entrenched beliefs or absent trader interest. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market could see more activity as shipping routes normalize alongside improving Saudi-Iranian relations.
Why it matters
The resumption of direct Hajj flights between Iran and Saudi Arabia is a concrete step in bilateral normalization, which cuts against the 100% YES pricing on Iranian military action with only 6 days remaining before the April 30 deadline. If normalization continues, the probability of military action drops. The 100% YES confidence looks difficult to justify without a new, specific geopolitical trigger.
What to watch
Official statements from Saudi Arabia and Iran on continuing diplomatic talks are the main signal. Any extension of the ceasefire or further normalization steps (trade agreements, embassy reopenings) could move odds on both the military action and Strait of Hormuz markets. Buying YES on Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization, if priced low, is the more obvious directional trade given current events.
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Iran Military Action Against April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
