Iran has accepted a two-week ceasefire proposal from Pakistan, endorsed by the new supreme leader. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 57% YES, up from 8% a week ago.
This news has impacted ceasefire markets, especially for dates beyond April 7. April 15 now sits at 70.5% YES, climbing from 14% in 24 hours. April 30 is at 72.5% YES, nearly doubling from a week ago. Traders expect a transition from a temporary halt to a longer agreement.
The Iranian regime’s stability is under scrutiny. The June 30 regime fall market shows a slight decline to 11% YES, down from 12% a day ago. The supreme leader’s approval suggests consolidating control, reducing fears of collapse.
USDC traded on the ceasefire markets was $3,739,297 over the past 24 hours, indicating robust activity. The largest price move was a 42-point spike at 10:33 PM, reflecting the market’s immediate reaction. The depth varies, with $202 needed to move the June 30 ceasefire market by 5 points.
The acceptance of the ceasefire proposal could de-escalate tensions. Buying YES shares at 57¢ offers a potential 1.75x return if hostilities cease by April 7. The challenge is predicting the regime’s and the US’s next moves. Any signs of talks extending beyond two weeks would solidify these odds.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and movements by intermediary nations like Oman and Qatar for cues on extending the ceasefire into lasting peace.
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Us X Iran Ceasefire| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 7 | 57% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 15 | 70.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 72.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 86% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 87% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 93.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
