House Republicans blocked a resolution to limit Trump’s military actions in Iran. The US-Iran ceasefire breach by April 21 market now sits at 8.5% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
Market reaction
The ceasefire breach market dropped two points at 4:25 PM, landing at 8.5% YES. Traders are pricing in no immediate breach announcement. The US declaration of war on Iran by December 31 market is at 7.5% YES, down from 8% yesterday.
Why it matters
Volume in these markets is moderate. The ceasefire breach market has a 24-hour face value of $22,582, which translates to $2,456 in actual USDC. It takes just $1,146 to move the price by 5 points, meaning a single larger trade could cause a noticeable swing. The biggest move in the past day was that two-point drop.
The blocked resolution means the administration faces fewer congressional constraints on military decisions regarding Iran. But without new aggressive moves, traders aren’t repricing risk upward. This is continuation, not a pivot.
At 8.5¢, a YES share on the ceasefire breach market pays $1, a 11.7x return. That bet requires an unexpected spike in military action or a significant announcement within the next five days.
What to watch
Trump’s public statements and any US military movements near Iran. Iranian responses or provocations. New congressional attempts to reassert war powers authority.
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Trump Announces Us X Iran Ceasefire Broken| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 8.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31 | 83% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 17 | 6.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 15% | — | — | Trade → |
