The Fed now describes inflation as “elevated” due to rising energy prices, and the likelihood of a 25 bps rate cut after the April 2026 meeting sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged over the past week.
The language shift reflects inflation concerns driven by the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict and its impact on energy prices. With gasoline costs rising and inflation pressures building, traders aren’t pricing in a rate cut. The 25 bps rate cut market has held flat at 0.1% YES for the past week.
The Fed’s more hawkish tone suggests little room for rate cuts in 2026. The Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 market reflects the same skepticism. The language change also opens the door to potential future hikes if inflation persists.
Traders should treat this as a genuine shift rather than a temporary blip. The Fed’s acknowledgment of persistent inflation, amid geopolitical tensions, means expectations for monetary policy in 2026 may need recalibrating. Buying YES shares at 0.1¢ in the rate cut markets offers a theoretical 1,000x return but would require a radical reversal in the Fed’s stance or an unexpected economic downturn.
Watch for upcoming FOMC minutes and any statements from Fed Chair Powell or other FOMC members. Any hints of further inflation concerns or openness to rate hikes would move market expectations.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| 50+ | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
