Wall Street traders are now pricing an 11% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike this year, up from 5% earlier Wednesday. The odds of a rate cut have dwindled to 2%.
The shift follows hawkish signals from policymakers amid ongoing supply shocks, including the global memory shortage and energy price surges from Middle Eastern disruptions. The Fed Rate Decisions market sits at 0.1% YES for a 25 bps cut, with the 50+ bps cut market showing the same odds.
The Fed Rate Cuts Predictions for 2026 market remains inactive, consistent with growing consensus against cuts as hawkish signals persist. The June and July 2026 meeting markets tell a clearer story. Odds for a 25 bps cut in June are at 3.4%, while July prices at 84.5% for no change.
Volume on the Fed Rate Decisions market is $9,464 in USDC traded daily. It takes $2,075 to move the market five points, which means it’s relatively stable but could shift with larger trades. The biggest single move in the past 24 hours was a two-point drop in the July market at 3:40 PM.
The market’s tilt toward a rate hike tracks external inflation pressures, specifically the “RAMmageddon” memory shortage and Middle Eastern energy disruptions. For traders, buying YES at 3¢ for a June rate cut pays $1 if it hits, a 33.3x return, but that requires unforeseen dovish signals to emerge soon.
Watch for upcoming CPI reports and Fed speeches, particularly from Powell or regional Fed presidents. Any indication of easing inflation or dovish policy could move these markets quickly.
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Fed Decision In April| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 bps | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| 50+ | 0.1% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 3.4% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 84.5% | — | — | View market → |
