Jerome Powell says he will continue to serve as a Fed governor, calling Trump’s criticism “unprecedented.” The odds of Powell stepping down as Fed Chair by May 14 are at 4.9% YES, up from 4% yesterday.
Powell’s firm stance has dampened expectations for his early departure. The May 14 market shows minimal movement, suggesting traders are not pricing in a sudden resignation. The May 15 market is more volatile, sitting at 73.5% YES, which points to traders expecting some catalyst right after the May 14 resolution.
The term structure shows a 69-point jump from May 14 to May 15, suggesting a specific event or announcement traders believe will land immediately after May 14. The May 31 and June 30 markets price Powell’s eventual departure with high confidence, at 96.2% and 99.4% respectively.
USDC trading volume is $7,068 daily in the May 14 market and $7,888 in the May 15 market. The May 15 market is thin: just $507 would shift the price by five points, meaning a single significant order could cause a sharp move.
Powell’s statement works against the case for his immediate departure. At 5¢, buying YES on May 14 pays $1 if he steps down, a 20x return. Traders should weigh that payout against Powell’s declared commitment to stay.
Watch for shifts in Trump’s rhetoric or moves from the Senate Banking Committee on Kevin Warsh’s nomination. Either could change the timeline for Powell’s departure.
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Jerome Powell Out As Fed Chair| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 14 | 4.9% | — | — | View market → |
| May 31 | 96% | — | — | View market → |
| June 30 | 99.4% | — | — | View market → |
| May 15 | 75% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | 3.4% | — | — | View market → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2026 | 84.5% | — | — | View market → |
Gloria API — Event-driven market intelligence, structured for analysis.
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