EU Council President Antonio Costa called for Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah during a fragile ceasefire period. The market for an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 sits at 99.2% YES.
Costa’s remarks have pushed attention toward diplomacy. The Israel-Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 19 is at 100% YES, showing traders expect near-term talks to happen. The June 30 ceasefire market is at 99.4% YES, up from 67% a week ago. Traders are pricing in sustained calm.
The ceasefire market saw $1.2M in USDC traded over the last 24 hours, with $50K required to move the price 5 points. That depth makes the market hard to swing with small trades. A 13-point spike in odds earlier suggests traders treated Costa’s comments as a diplomatic catalyst.
Costa’s call for disarmament signals a possible shift toward real negotiation, though no concrete steps have followed. At 99.2¢, a YES share pays 1.06x. Traders buying at this price need to believe diplomatic progress will hold over the next two weeks.
Watch for official announcements from Israel and Lebanon, particularly joint statements or verified actions on Hezbollah’s disarmament. EU backing from Costa could add pressure toward concrete outcomes in those negotiations.
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Israel X Lebanon Diplomatic Meeting| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 19 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 14 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 99.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 99.2% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 68% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 60.5% | — | — | Trade → |