ETFs and digital asset trusts now control nearly 12% of Bitcoin’s supply. The market for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 2026 is at 36.5% YES, up slightly from 36% a week ago.
ETFs and DATs accumulated enough Bitcoin to reach that 11.9% threshold, and the $100,000 market has nudged up 0.5 points in response. The steady inflow tracks with growing institutional allocation. The Bitcoin $150,000 market remains at 9.5% YES, suggesting traders still discount extreme price targets heavily.
$1.32 billion flowed into ETFs in March, but the prediction market response has been muted: actual USDC volume sits at $955/day. Moving the $100,000 market 5 percentage points requires $6,646, which points to a relatively stable order book even with the bullish supply data.
What matters here is the institutional commitment these inflows represent. Sustained ETF buying could put a floor under prices and trigger retail buying pressure. With Bitcoin near $69,000, traders betting YES on the $100,000 target by December face a potential 2.74x return. That payout depends on continued ETF inflows and a cooperative macro environment.
Watch for moves from BlackRock and Fidelity specifically. Changes in their allocation pace or new product announcements could shift the $100,000 market meaningfully in either direction.
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What Price Will Bitcoin Hit Before 2027
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| $100,000 |
36% |
-0.5¢ |
$5K |
Trade → |
| $150,000 |
9.5% |
0.0¢ |
$11K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 14
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 14 |
100% |
0.0¢ |
— |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Price On April 15
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 15 |
0.5% |
— |
— |
Trade → |
What Price Will Bitcoin Hit On April 14
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 14 |
0.1% |
— |
— |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 16
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 16 |
99.9% |
+0.4¢ |
$59K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 19
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 19 |
99.9% |
+0.1¢ |
$18 |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 17
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 17 |
100% |
+0.4¢ |
$55K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 20
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 20 |
99.5% |
+0.3¢ |
$3K |
Trade → |
Bitcoin Above On April 18
| Contract |
Odds |
Δ since publish |
Volume 24h |
|
| April 18 |
99.9% |
+0.1¢ |
$19K |
Trade → |
Updated 4min ago
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