Negotiations on the CLARITY Act are down to 2-3 unresolved issues, and XRP reaching $2 by April 19 sits at 1.0% YES, unchanged from 24 hours ago.
The narrowing of open issues suggests progress, but the market isn’t buying it. XRP hitting $2.60 in April is at 0.8% YES, down from 1% a week ago. These odds reflect skepticism that the Act will resolve in time to move prices this month.
Trading volume is thin: only $3 in USDC traded over the past 24 hours across both markets. The cost to move the price by 5 percentage points is $292 for the short-term market and $245 for the April market, meaning even minor trades could shift the odds considerably.
If the CLARITY Act leads to XRP being classified as a non-security, the price implications could be large. But with the April 19 deadline close and legislative timelines unpredictable, the window is narrow. At 1.0%, buying YES shares offers a 100x return, but that requires both a swift resolution and a significant market response.
Watch for Senate Banking Committee movements and any statements from key figures like SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Concrete legislative progress could shift these odds quickly given how little liquidity is in the book.
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What Price Will Xrp Hit April 13 19| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13-19 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.8% | — | — | Trade → |
