BTC ETFs have attracted $2.2B in net inflows over the past 10 trading days, while ETH ETFs saw $663M. On Polymarket, Bitcoin reaching a new all-time high by June 30, 2026, sits at 3% YES.
Market reaction
The BTC ETF inflows have kept the June 30 market flat at 3%, unchanged over the past week. The September 30 market ticked up to 12%, from 10% yesterday. The December 31 market is at 18%.
Why it matters
The Ethereum inflows are a bullish signal for ETH price predictions in April, though specific market odds for ETH reaching $4,000 in April are unavailable. The 8-point gap between the June and September BTC markets (3% vs. 12%) suggests traders expect a catalyst in the next few months, whether from institutional positioning or macroeconomic shifts.
Combined 24h USDC volume across BTC markets is $3,208, and liquidity is thin: only $1,540 would shift the June 30 market by 5 percentage points. The odds are real but easy to move.
What to watch
Sustained ETF inflows or dovish Federal Reserve signals could push the all-time-high odds higher. YES shares at 3¢ on the June 30 market offer a large payout if Bitcoin breaks through, but that depends on continued inflow momentum and regulatory developments. Watch for moves from Michael Saylor and Grayscale, along with any Fed policy shifts.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 11.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 17.5% | — | — | Trade → |
