The UK and France are rallying nations for military planning to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of UK warships entering the strait by April 30 sit at 2.4% YES, down from 10% a day ago.
Market reaction
The UK and France are gathering military planners in London to discuss “practical military options” for ensuring navigation freedom in the Strait of Hormuz. This suggests a higher likelihood of UK warships eventually entering the strait, contingent on a ceasefire. But the market prices skepticism about immediate deployment, with 2.4% YES for the April 30 resolution date.
Why it matters
Liquidity in the “Warships Through the Strait of Hormuz” market is thin, with $917 in USDC traded over the past day. It takes just $200 to shift prices by 5 percentage points, meaning even small trades can cause sharp swings. The largest move was a 2-point drop at 5:59 PM yesterday.
This planning conference matters because it could change the operational picture after a ceasefire. A YES share priced at 2.4¢ pays 41.7x if the UK deploys. That bet requires confidence in a swift, coordinated military response after a ceasefire.
What to watch
Official statements from the UK Ministry of Defence and allied naval movements. The conference outcome and subsequent military decisions are the main signals for this market.
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Which Countries Will Send Warships Through The Strait Of Hormuz April 30| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 2.4% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 3.6% | — | — | Trade → |