Brazil is feeling the economic pinch from the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, as rising global energy prices have increased the cost of cooking gas. On Polymarket, crude oil hitting $90 by June sits at 71¢ YES.
The Crude Oil Predictions for June market is showing heightened activity as traders weigh continued supply disruptions. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and its effect on oil prices is driving speculation. With 71 days until resolution, bets are concentrated on a price surge tied to geopolitical tensions.
The WTI Crude Oil Prices in April 2026 market sits at just 1.2% YES. The likelihood of WTI crude hitting $160 in April still looks remote. That low probability reflects skepticism about reaching such a price target in the near term.
Trading volumes tell their own story. The Crude Oil Predictions for June market has zero reported face value volume, pointing to a thin trading environment. The WTI market has $20,174 in daily face value but only $316 in actual USDC, meaning large orders can easily move prices given the low liquidity.
For traders, the main consideration is the potential for significant upside in crude oil prices depending on the conflict’s trajectory. At 71¢, a YES share for crude oil hitting $90 by June pays out if tensions escalate further. A catalyst like a prolonged Hormuz closure would likely push these odds higher.
Watch for statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister or OPEC+ meetings, as any changes in oil output could shift market sentiment. A confirmed Iranian output disruption would similarly move the odds.
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What Will The Us Agree To| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 44.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 1.1% | — | — | Trade → |
