The US failed to meet its objectives in the Iran war, according to a new report. The likelihood of the US declaring war on Iran by April 30 sits at 1% YES, while a ceasefire by the same date is at 34.5% YES.
Market reaction
The report has not moved the formal war declaration odds, which remain at 1% for April 30, unchanged from a week ago. Traders show almost no appetite for escalation on that timeline. The December 31 market is slightly higher at 6% YES, suggesting some willingness to price in longer-term risk.
On the ceasefire side, the market for ending military operations by April 30 has dropped from 36% to 34.5%, meaning traders are less confident about a near-term diplomatic resolution even after the report surfaced.
Why it matters
Trading volumes tell the story. The US-Iran ceasefire market has a face value of $163,195, with actual USDC traded at $54,670. It takes just $841 to move the market 5 points, which means low liquidity and vulnerability to large single orders. The war declaration by April 30 market is even thinner: $677 in actual USDC traded and a $1,530 cost to move 5 points. Skepticism about formal escalation within 10 days is near-total.
The report’s finding that US goals went unmet could push decision-makers toward diplomatic options rather than further military action. For traders, a YES share on the ceasefire by April 30 at 30.5¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 3.28x return. That bet requires de-escalation within 10 days.
What to watch
Congressional reactions to the report and any diplomatic signals from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. If Trump or Hegseth shift toward diplomacy, the ceasefire market could move fast given its thin liquidity.
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Will The Us Officially Declare War On Iran| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 7% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30, 2026 | 0.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 34.5% | — | — | Trade → |
