BlackRock, Schwab, Fidelity, and Morgan Stanley have all launched crypto products. On Polymarket, the question of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 by April 30 sits at 15% YES, suggesting traders see a sharp decline as unlikely.
Market reaction
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) holds over $83 billion. The April 30 Bitcoin market has traders pricing a drop to $60,000 at 15% YES. Volume is thin, with no trades in the last 24 hours.
Why it matters
Schwab and Morgan Stanley are now offering low-cost ETFs and spot trading access, which changes the buyer base for Bitcoin. More institutional custody and trading infrastructure means larger, steadier capital flows compared to retail-dominated cycles. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $60,000 by April’s end, a 6.7x return. That bet requires a significant correction from current levels, which the thin YES positioning suggests few traders expect while these firms are actively building positions.
What to watch
Federal Reserve rate decisions and major geopolitical disruptions could shift expectations. Regulatory changes or new product announcements from these firms would also move the odds.
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Largest Company End Of June 712| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 89.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 98.9% | — | — | Trade → |
