BlackRock has reportedly purchased $500 million worth of Bitcoin in the past 48 hours. The likelihood of Bitcoin remaining above $62,000 on April 17 is at 99.9% YES.
This buy is part of a larger pattern: BlackRock has acquired over $3 billion in Bitcoin and $500 million in Ethereum since the Iran conflict escalated. The April 17 market is priced at 99.9% YES with one day left until resolution. Trading volume sits at $54,122 in actual USDC.
BlackRock’s purchase signals institutional demand for Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical instability. The April 18 market is at 99.8% YES, pointing to expectations of continued price stability through the week.
BlackRock is treating Bitcoin as a non-sovereign store of value during a period of fiat currency risk tied to the Iran conflict. With BTC holding above $62,000 through recent volatility, the probability of a dip below $60,000 in April has shrunk considerably. Buying YES at 99¢ offers minimal payout, consistent with near-certain pricing.
Watch for further institutional purchases. If additional large-scale Bitcoin buys from major exchanges or asset managers are disclosed, those could push BTC further from the $62,000 threshold and compress downside risk in related markets.
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Bitcoin Above On April 17| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 17 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 18 | 99.8% | — | — | Trade → |