Bitcoin steadies as limited U.S. exposure to oil shocks calms markets

Rising oil prices are shaking global markets, but the U.S. is largely insulated and bitcoin seems to be riding the wave alongside Wall Street.

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What to know:

• Oil prices have surged above $100 a barrel amid conflict involving Iran, the United States and Israel, pressuring global markets but leaving bitcoin largely unchanged around $67,000.
• Bitcoin is increasingly trading like a U.S. risk asset, buoyed by the relative resilience of Wall Street, America’s status as a net oil exporter and growing institutional access through spot ETFs.
• While U.S. energy independence may delay the impact of higher oil prices at the gas pump, a prolonged conflict and sustained oil spike could eventually feed into American inflation and consumer costs.

The week-long war between Iran, the U.S., and Israel has pushed oil prices on both sides of the Atlantic past $100 a barrel, threatening to inject inflation into the global economy. Asian markets are taking a hit, bond yields are climbing, and yet bitcoin BTC$67,316.44 has barely budged, hovering around $67,000, where it was 24 hours ago.

A likely reason? Bitcoin's strong links to Wall Street. Since the conflict started last week, U.S. stocks have held up relatively well compared to Asian and European equities, probably benefiting from America’s position as a net oil exporter. Bitcoin, which closely tracks U.S. tech and Nasdaq moves, seems to have caught some of that same resilience.

"The United States is not meaningfully exposed to oil from Iran, or, more broadly, the Middle East," JP Morgan's Executive Director Kriti Gupta and Global Investment Strategist Justin Beimann said in a note to clients Friday, noting the relative strength of the U.S. stocks.

They explained that the U.S. imports oil mostly from Canada and Mexico, and just 4% from Saudi Arabia, and that it is now the world's largest net oil exporter. This means the U.S. is largely insulated from disruptions to oil flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, while China and other Asian countries, such as India and South Korea, are most affected.

Markets are pricing risks accordingly. Futures tied to the S&P 500 and tech-heavy index Nasdaq are down just over 3% since the conflict began on Feb. 28. Meanwhile, Asian equity indices have taken a beating. Japan's Nikkei and India's Nifty have dropped 10% and 5%, respectively. South Korea's Kospi has declined by over 16%.

Though bitcoin is a decentralized asset, it has slowly evolved into a quasi–U.S. risk asset, increasingly moving in step with Wall Street, tech stocks, and even the U.S. dollar. This trend has accelerated since the debut of U.S. spot ETFs, which made it easier for institutional investors to access bitcoin directly.

The late-2024 election of Donald Trump also added to the shift, as markets reacted to his promises of looser regulations and a more crypto-friendly policy environment. Together, these developments have tethered bitcoin more closely to U.S. financial conditions, making it less of a purely global, borderless asset and more of a barometer for American risk appetite.

It shows that bitcoin is increasingly tied to U.S. financial conditions, making it less of a purely global, borderless asset and more of a barometer of Wall Street risk appetite.

Another factor likely helping bitcoin is its oversold status. The cryptocurrency had already dropped to nearly $60,000 well before the conflict began, following weeks of profit-taking and broader market jitters. That decline likely cleared out short-term sellers, leaving a relatively stable base for the digital asset.

Inflation could show up with lag

The oil price spike could hit U.S. consumers' wallets with a lag, even though the U.S. is largely energy-independent.

“That doesn’t mean Americans are insulated from higher gasoline prices,” JPMorgan strategists Kriti Gupta and Justin Beimann noted. “Oil prices are still subject to global supply dynamics. But energy independence means there’s a lag before price increases show up at the pump, making it easier to weather short-term volatility.”

In other words, a prolonged conflict or sustained oil surge could eventually filter through to consumer prices. Still, for now, the U.S. market and bitcoin appear to be riding out the initial shock relatively unscathed.

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Bitcoin could face deeper downside as odds of U.S. market meltdown rise to 35%

Veteran strategist Ed Yardeni raised his probability of a stock market crash this year as oil tops $100, the dollar posts its best week in a year, and the Iran conflict expands to Saudi Arabia.

What to know:

• Bitcoin is holding steady around $67,000 despite sharp declines in global equities, surging volatility and rising oil prices.
• Market strategist Ed Yardeni has raised the odds of a U.S. market meltdown to 35 percent as higher oil prices threaten both inflation and employment.
• Research from NYDIG suggests that only about a quarter of Bitcoin's price moves can be explained by its correlation with equities, with the rest driven by crypto-specific factors.

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