ARK Invest reported a 69% increase in Bitcoin held by conviction buyers during Q1 2026, with supply rising from 2.13M to 3.60M BTC. Bitcoin’s price fell 22% over the same period. The June 30 market for a new all-time high sits at 3.1% YES, unchanged over the past week.
Market reaction
The September 30 market is at 11.0% YES, down 1% from a day ago. The December 31 market ticked up slightly to 18.5% YES. Total actual USDC traded across all sub-markets is $3,090, with the June market seeing just $469 in daily volume.
Why it matters
The 8-point spread between the June (3.1%) and September (11.0%) markets suggests traders expect catalysts to arrive after June rather than before. Conviction buyers accumulating 1.47M additional BTC during a 22% price decline means selling pressure was absorbed without capitulation. The thin liquidity across these sub-markets, however, means a few large trades can move odds significantly, so the signal from price levels alone is limited.
The increase in conviction holdings also cuts against the probability of Bitcoin dipping to $60,000 in April; odds for such a move remain stagnant, consistent with the accumulation data showing strong buyer support at lower prices.
What to watch
Federal Reserve rate decisions and FOMC statements from Jerome Powell could shift expectations. Bitcoin ETF inflow data and any announcements from large asset managers like BlackRock are worth tracking. The term structure across the June, September, and December markets will show whether new information is pulling expected catalysts earlier or pushing them later.
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Term Structure| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 3.1% | — | — | Trade → |
| September 30 | 11% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 18.5% | — | — | Trade → |
