Persian Gulf nations are producing 14.5 million barrels per day below pre-war levels after a Strait of Hormuz closure triggered by a US-Israel attack, and crude oil prediction markets are adjusting to the supply shock. The Crude Oil Price by End of June market is the most directly affected contract.
Market reaction
The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market sits at just 2% YES with seven days remaining. Actual USDC trading volume for that contract is $2,006, and it takes only $1,020 to move the price five percentage points, a thin order book. The June markets, Crude Oil Price by End of June and Crude Oil Predictions for June, lack volume data so far but have 68 days until resolution, giving traders time to price in the Hormuz disruption.
Why it matters
A 14.5 million barrel per day shortfall is a textbook supply-side shock. The April 30 all-time-high contract’s low odds are consistent with the expected timeline for resolving the Hormuz closure: prices are unlikely to breach $120 in the next week. The June contracts are a different story. At 22¢, a YES share in the June market pays $1 if crude hits $90, a potential 4.5x return. Goldman Sachs predicts a slow recovery even after the Strait reopens, which points to sustained upward price pressure through June.
What to watch
Official statements from Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister and OPEC+ announcements will matter most. Any updates on tanker flows through Hormuz or shifts in the broader geopolitical situation could move these contracts quickly. The June markets are where the real action will be as the disruption plays out.
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