The Antalya Diplomacy Forum has brought foreign ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt together, and the US-Iran ceasefire market for April 22 now sits at 14.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago.
The forum is focused on leveraging the current ceasefire into sustained peace. The April 30 ceasefire market moved up to 54.5% YES on the news. The May 31 market is higher still at 64.5% YES.
Discussions at the forum center on the Strait of Hormuz and ceasefire sustainability. The June 30 market is at 77.5% YES. The term structure shows a 20-point jump from April 22 to April 30, which suggests traders expect meaningful progress in the coming weeks but doubt it will happen before April 22.
Total volume across these markets is $699,190 in USDC. Order books show $16,401 needed to move the April 22 market by 5 points, which points to institutional participation. The largest single move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM, driven by a large order.
Without concrete outcomes from the forum, the current pricing may be premature. A YES share for an April 22 ceasefire costs 39¢, paying $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. For that to happen, significant progress must come before April 22.
Watch for specific announcements from intermediary nations like Oman or Qatar. A tangible date or venue for continued talks would move these markets.
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Russia X Ukraine Ceasefire April 30 2026| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 1% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30, 2026 | 67.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31, 2026 | 79.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30, 2026 | 74.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 21 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 22 | 39% | — | — | Trade → |
| April 30 | 54.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| May 31 | 64.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 77.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| December 31 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
