Bitcoin has surged past $77,000 following Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The Polymarket question on whether Bitcoin will be above $68,000 on April 16 sits at 99.9% YES.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a major oil chokepoint, points to de-escalation in geopolitical tensions that had driven recent Bitcoin volatility. In the April 16 market, Bitcoin’s price is well above the $68,000 threshold, making the outcome near-certain. Bitcoin broke through resistance levels as geopolitical pressure eased and broader market conditions shifted.
With Bitcoin firmly above $77,000, attention turns to the April 2026 market on whether it will dip to $60,000. The Strait of Hormuz reopening and reduced tensions lower the probability of a sharp decline, and traders are pricing in a calmer geopolitical environment.
Trading activity has been heavy, with actual USDC volume over $1.2 million in the last 24 hours. Market depth is at $301K. The largest price move was the break above $77,000, triggered by the geopolitical shift.
The reopening changes Bitcoin’s risk premium. At current levels, a YES share on the April 2026 $60,000 dip question pays $1, which would be a large return if tensions reignite. But Iran’s move may mean the risk of that decline is overpriced, absent new escalation.
Watch for further U.S. and Iran announcements on the ceasefire and any changes in Bitcoin ETF inflows, either of which could sustain or reverse the current move.
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Bitcoin Above On April 13| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 13 | 100% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 16 | 99.9% | — | — | Trade → |
