Al Jazeera published a report on the economic conflict between the US-Israel coalition and Iran, pointing to worsening relations. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30 sit at 5.5% YES, up from 3% yesterday.
Market reaction
The Israel-Iran permanent peace deal market saw modest activity on the news. The June 30 resolution market dropped to 12% YES from 14% yesterday. The 6-point spread between the April and June contracts shows traders pricing in possible developments after April but not before.
On the US-Iran nuclear deal market, odds are at 10.9% YES, up from 7% yesterday but down sharply from 68% a week ago. Volume is high, though the recent uptick looks more like short-term speculation than a real shift in sentiment.
Why it matters
The WTI Crude Oil price market holds steady at 0.7% YES for hitting $160 in April. Even with the Hormuz closure, traders aren’t pricing in a major supply disruption or sustained escalation.
The modest move in peace deal odds and the collapse in nuclear deal odds point to deep skepticism about diplomatic breakthroughs. The flat oil market implies traders don’t expect dramatic economic shocks from the current situation.
What to watch
At 5.5¢, a YES share on the April 30 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 18x return. That price reflects how unlikely traders consider a deal under current conditions. Watch for statements from Trump, Araghchi, and the IDF. Any shift in diplomatic language could move these markets quickly.
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Israel X Iran Permanent Peace Deal| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 5.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| June 30 | 12% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 10.8% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April | 0.7% | — | — | Trade → |
