Aave market shows signs of strain as exchange inflows signal growing risk

Aave [AAVE] has faced increased selling pressure after the KelpDAO attack. This weakness also prompted many whales to sell the DeFi token. Exchange netflows have been positive recently and matched early February levels. At that time, the crypto market was undergoing a heavy sell-off. Inflows matching those levels may be another sign of weakness in AAVE's market. The Futures Taker CVD measures the cumulative difference between market buy and market sell volumes over 3 months. A falling CVD indicates less market buy volume. The CVD has slowly fallen in 2026, implying that sellers had the upper hand. At the time of writing, the CVD was not seller-dominated. However, a change in this situation, such as September and October 2025, would drag the altcoin's prices lower. A bearish AAVE price move is brewing In a post on X, crypto analyst Joao Wedson drew attention to the aggressive positioning of AAAVE whales and top traders. At the same time, retail was betting in the opposite direction. Smart money and the market movers may have knowledge that retail does not yet have. "Something big is about to happen," warned the analyst, though what exactly it is would only become apparent after it has happened. Traders and holders should be cautious of the prevailing market conditions. Despite Bitcoin's [BTC] rally beyond $79k, the short-term Aave outlook might be relatively bleak. The 7-day moving average of the exchange netflows saw a sharp uptick over the past week. It reached highs not seen in over a year. In April 2025, the extremely high exchange inflows marked the Aave market bottom at $125. It is unlikely the current uptick would mark a local bottom though. This, because of the long-term price structure of the DeFi token. Additionally, at press time, it seemed to have a notable band of short liquidations from $96-$102, and also from $120-$135. A rally beyond $125 and $132 is needed to shift the bearish market structure bullishly. Meanwhile, the on-chain metrics were flashing signs that selling pressure may have the upper hand. Final Summary AAVE's price action and on-chain metrics signaled sellers were in control of the market. The $100 and $125 areas had a cluster of short liquidations that could be short-term price targets.