Zero oil tankers traversed the Strait of Hormuz today, the first complete shutdown in the strait’s history. The U.S. escort market for April 30 sits at 16.5% YES, up from 18% twenty-four hours ago.
The complete halt in tanker traffic has pushed traders toward the U.S. escort market. The UK warship deployment market moved in the opposite direction, dropping to 8.5% YES from 12% yesterday.
The ship transit market for April 13–19 shows “fewer than 10 ships” at 0.4% YES, consistent with expectations of minimal traffic during the blockade. Liquidity in this market is low, and actual USDC traded remains minor, suggesting traders aren’t heavily committing yet.
A full shutdown of the strait directly threatens roughly 20% of global oil transit. If the blockade persists, pressure on the U.S. to provide naval escorts increases. Buying YES on the U.S. escort market at 16.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. Without firm U.S. action, these markets remain speculative.
Watch for announcements from President Trump or the Pentagon on naval operations in the region. A shift in CENTCOM’s operational posture or confirmation of naval deployments would likely move these markets sharply.
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Us Escorts Commercial Ship Through Hormuz March 31| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 16.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 30 | 9.5% | — | — | Trade → |
| Contract | Odds | Δ since publish | Volume 24h | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 19 | 0.1% | — | — | Trade → |
